Washington S 10Th Congressional District Election, 2018

From Ballotpedia

General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 10

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Denny Heck
Denny Heck (D)
 
61.5
 
166,215
Image of Joseph Brumbles
Joseph Brumbles (R) Candidate Connection
 
38.5
 
103,860

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 270,075
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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2020 →
← 2016
Washington's 10th Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Top-two primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 18, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Denny Heck (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: No polling hours (vote-by-mail)
Voting in Washington
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Washington's 10th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 10th
Washington elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 10th Congressional District of Washington, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was Denny Heck (D), who was first elected in 2012.

Washington's 10th Congressional District is located in the west central portion of the state and includes portions of Thurston, Pierce, and Mason counties.[1]




Candidates and election results[edit]

General election

General election for U.S. House Washington District 10

Incumbent Denny Heck defeated Joseph Brumbles in the general election for U.S. House Washington District 10 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Denny Heck
Denny Heck (D)
 
61.5
 
166,215
Image of Joseph Brumbles
Joseph Brumbles (R) Candidate Connection
 
38.5
 
103,860

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 270,075
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Nonpartisan primary election

Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House Washington District 10

Incumbent Denny Heck and Joseph Brumbles defeated Tamborine Borrelli and Nancy Slotnick in the primary for U.S. House Washington District 10 on August 7, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Denny Heck
Denny Heck (D)
 
58.2
 
82,552
✔
Image of Joseph Brumbles
Joseph Brumbles (R) Candidate Connection
 
31.9
 
45,270
Image of Tamborine Borrelli
Tamborine Borrelli (Independent)
 
5.6
 
7,997
Image of Nancy Slotnick
Nancy Slotnick (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
4.3
 
6,127

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 141,946
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

  • Adam Harrsion (Independent)

District analysis[edit]

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+5, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 5 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Washington's 10th Congressional District the 167th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[3]

Race background[edit]

Washington's 10th District was listed as one of the NRCC's initial targets in 2018.[4]

Campaign contributions[edit]

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Denny Heck Democratic Party $1,632,852 $1,221,635 $1,169,965 As of December 31, 2018
Joseph Brumbles Republican Party $5,243 $6,072 $-660 As of November 26, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


District history[edit]

2016[edit]

See also: Washington's 10th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Denny Heck (D) defeated Jim Postma (R) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heck and Postma defeated Jennifer Ferguson (D) and Richard Boyce (I) in the top-two primary on August 2, 2016.[5][6]

U.S. House, Washington District 10 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDenny Heck Incumbent 58.7% 170,460
     Republican Jim Postma 41.3% 120,104
Total Votes 290,564
Source: Washington Secretary of State


U.S. House, Washington District 10 Primary, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDenny Heck Incumbent 46.5% 58,865
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngJim Postma 36.7% 46,473
     Democratic Jennifer Ferguson 13.2% 16,750
     Independent Richard Boyce 3.5% 4,411
Total Votes 126,499
Source: Washington Secretary of State

2014[edit]

See also: Washington's 10th Congressional District elections, 2014

The 10th Congressional District of Washington held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Denny Heck (D) defeated Joyce McDonald (R) in the general election.

U.S. House, Washington District 10 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngDenny Heck Incumbent 54.7% 99,279
     Republican Joyce McDonald 45.3% 82,213
Total Votes 181,492
Source: Washington Secretary of State

Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Five of 39 Washington counties—12.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Clallam County, Washington 2.76% 0.38% 3.30%
Cowlitz County, Washington 13.32% 4.44% 11.15%
Grays Harbor County, Washington 6.99% 14.11% 14.56%
Mason County, Washington 5.81% 7.09% 8.66%
Pacific County, Washington 6.74% 11.52% 14.07%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Washington with 52.5 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 36.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Washington cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 73.3 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Washington supported Democratic candidates for president more often than Republican candidates, 53.3 to 43.3 percent. The state favored Democrats in every election between 2000 and 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Washington. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 34 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 25.4 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 30 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 32.1 points.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 15 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 13.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 19 out of 49 state House districts in Washington with an average margin of victory of 14.9 points.

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Washington heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

  • Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held both U.S. Senate seats in Washington.
  • Democrats held six of 10 U.S. House seats in Washington.

State executives[edit]

  • As of September 2018, Democrats held six of 8 state executive positions, Republicans held two, and the remaining positions were officially nonpartisan.
  • The governor of Washington was Democrat Jay Inslee. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 3, 2020.

State legislature[edit]

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Washington State Legislature. They had a 50-48 majority in the state House and a 26-23 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

  • Washington was a Democratic trifecta, meaning that the Democrats controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Washington elections, 2018

Washington held elections for the following positions in 2018:

  • One U.S. Senate seat
  • 10 U.S. House seats
  • 25 of 49 state Senate seats
  • 98 state House seats
  • Municipal elections in Seattle

Demographics[edit]

Demographic data for Washington
 WashingtonU.S.
Total population:7,160,290316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):66,4563,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.8%73.6%
Black/African American:3.6%12.6%
Asian:7.7%5.1%
Native American:1.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.6%0.2%
Two or more:5.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:12%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:90.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:32.9%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,062$53,889
Persons below poverty level:14.4%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Washington.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Washington's three largest cities were Seattle (pop. est. 724,745), Spokane (pop. est. 217,108), and Tacoma (pop. est. 213,418).[9][10]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Washington from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Washington Secretary of State.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Washington every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Washington 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 54.3% Republican Party Donald Trump 38.1% 16.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.2% Republican Party Mitt Romney 41.2% 10.0%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 57.6% Republican Party John McCain 40.5% 17.1%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 52.8% Republican Party George W. Bush 45.6% 7.2%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 50.2% Republican Party George W. Bush 44.6% 5.8%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Washington from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Washington 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Patty Murray 59.0% Republican Party Chris Vance 40.1% 18.9%
2012 Democratic Party Maria Cantwell 60.4% Republican Party Michael Baumgartner 39.5% 20.9%
2010 Democratic Party Patty Murray 52.4% Republican Party Dino Rossi 47.6% 4.8%
2006 Democratic Party Maria Cantwell 56.9% Republican Party Michael McGavick 39.9% 17.0%
2004 Democratic Party Patty Murray 55.0% Republican Party George R. Nethercutt, Jr. 44.7% 10.3%
2000 Democratic Party Maria Cantwell 48.7% Republican Party Slade Gorton 48.6% 0.1%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Washington.

Election results (Governor), Washington 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Jay Inslee 54.4% Republican Party Bill Bryant 45.6% 8.8%
2012 Democratic Party Jay Inslee 51.5% Republican Party Rob McKenna 48.6% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Christine Gregoire 53.2% Republican Party Dino Rossi 46.8% 6.4%
2004 Democratic Party Christine Gregoire 48.9% Republican Party Dino Rossi 48.9% 0.0%
2000 Democratic Party Gary Locke 58.4% Republican Party John Carlson 39.7% 7.1%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Washington in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Washington 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 4 40% Democratic Party 6 60% D+2
2014 Republican Party 4 40% Democratic Party 6 60% D+2
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2008 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2004 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2002 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2
2000 Republican Party 3 33.3% Democratic Party 6 66.7% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Washington Party Control: 1992-2024
Eighteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate R D D D D R R D D D D R R D D D D D D D D R R R R R[11] D D D D D D D
House D D D R R R R S S S D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

See also[edit]

  • Washington's 10th Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 top-two primary)
  • United States House of Representatives elections in Washington, 2018
  • United States House of Representatives elections, 2018

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ Politico, "House Republicans name Democratic targets for 2018," February 8, 2017
  5. ↑ Washington Secretary of State, "Unofficial List of Candidates in Ballot Order," accessed May 23, 2016
  6. ↑ Politico, "Washington House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  9. ↑ Washington Demographics, "Washington Cities by Population," accessed December 11, 2017
  10. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Washington," accessed December 11, 2017
  11. ↑ Democrats gained full control of the state Senate after a special election on November 7, 2017.
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[show]
Washington's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Maria Cantwell (D)
Patty Murray (D)
Representatives
District 1
Suzan DelBene (D)
District 2
Rick Larsen (D)
District 3
Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez (D)
District 4
Dan Newhouse (R)
District 5
Michael Baumgartner (R)
District 6
Emily Randall (D)
District 7
Pramila Jayapal (D)
District 8
Kim Schrier (D)
District 9
D. Adam Smith (D)
District 10
Marilyn Strickland (D)
Democratic Party (10)
Republican Party (2)

Categories: [U.S. House elections, Washington, 2018]

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