Illinois State Senate Elections, 2018
From Ballotpedia Elections in Illinois, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Sept. 27 - Nov. 5
- Absentee voting deadline: Nov. 20
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Voter ID: No
- Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
| 2018 Illinois Senate elections | |
|---|---|
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| General | November 6, 2018 |
| Primary | March 20, 2018 |
| Past election results |
| 2016・2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 |
| 2018 elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
Democrats maintained their supermajority in the Illinois State Senate in the 2018 elections, controlling 40 seats to Republicans' 19. As of 2018, a party needed to control 36 seats in the Senate to have a three-fifths supermajority.
A total of 39 seats out of the chamber's 59 seats were up for election in 2018. Heading into the election, Democrats controlled 37 seats and Republicans controlled 22.
Democrats gained a trifecta in Illinois in 2018 by holding the state House and the state Senate and winning the governor's office.
Under the Illinois Constitution of 1970, senators are divided into three groups, each group having a two-year term at a different part of the decade between censuses, with the rest of the decade being taken up by two four-year terms. Depending on the election year, roughly ⅓, ⅔, or all of the Senate seats may have terms ending.[1]
The Illinois State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers holding elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. In 2017, three chambers in Virginia and New Jersey were up for election. In 2016, 86 out of 99 legislative chambers held elections. Prior to 2018, the Illinois State Senate last held elections in 2016.
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Post-election analysis[edit]
- See also: State legislative elections, 2018
The Democratic Party attained supermajority status in both chambers of the Illinois General Assembly in the 2018 election. Democrats in the Illinois State Senate already held a supermajority, but Democrats in the Illinois House of Representatives did not previously hold the minimum 71 seats needed for a supermajority. In the state Senate, 39 out of 59 seats were up for election. Democrats increased their supermajority in the Illinois State Senate from 37-22 to 40-19. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and three Republican incumbents were defeated in the general election.
The Illinois House of Representatives held elections for all 118 seats. The Democratic majority in the House of Representatives increased from 67-51 to 74-44. One Democratic incumbent and one Republican incumbent were defeated in the primary. Seven incumbents were defeated in the general election; one Democrat and six Republicans.
National background[edit]
On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.
- Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
- A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.
Want more information?
- Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
- 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
- 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
- 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities
Candidates[edit]
General election[edit]
Illinois State Senate General Election 2018 |
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| Office | Democratic |
Republican |
Other |
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| District 9 |
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Joan McCarthy Lasonde |
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| District 11 |
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| District 12 |
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| District 17 |
Did not make the ballot: |
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| District 20 |
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| District 21 |
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Michael Connelly (i) |
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| District 23 |
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Seth Lewis |
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| District 24 |
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Chris Nybo (i) |
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| District 26 |
Tom Georges |
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| District 27 |
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Tom Rooney (i) |
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| District 29 |
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Barrett Davie |
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| District 30 |
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Soojae Lee |
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| District 32 |
Mary Mahady |
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| District 33 |
Nancy Zettler |
Did not make the ballot: |
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| District 35 |
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| District 36 |
Gregg Johnson |
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| District 38 |
Heidi Henry |
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| District 39 |
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| District 41 |
Bridget Fitzgerald |
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| District 42 |
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| District 44 |
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| District 45 |
David Simpson |
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| District 47 |
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| District 48 |
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Seth McMillan |
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| District 50 |
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| District 51 |
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| District 53 |
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| District 54 |
Brian Stout |
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| District 56 |
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Hal Patton (Downstate United Party) |
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| District 57 |
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Tanya Hildenbrand |
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| District 59 |
Steve Webb |
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Primary election[edit]
- See also: Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018
The candidate list below is based on an official list provided by the Illinois State Board of Elections website on December 4, 2017. The filing deadline for the March primary was on December 4, 2017. (I) denotes an incumbent.[2]
| Illinois State Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |
Democrat |
Republican |
Other |
| 2 | Omar Aquino (I)  |
No candidate | |
| 3 | Mattie Hunter (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Patricia Van Pelt (I) |
No candidate | |
| 6 | John Cullerton (I) |
No candidate | |
| 8 | Ira Silverstein: 7,477 (I) Caroline McAteer-Fournier: 3,556 Ram Villivalam: 13,350 David Zulkey: 1,359 |
No candidate | |
| 9 | Laura Fine |
Joan McCarthy Lasonde |
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| 11 | Martin Sandoval (I) |
No candidate | |
| 12 | Steven Landek (I) |
No candidate | |
| 14 | Emil Jones (I) |
No candidate | |
| 15 | Napoleon Harris (I) |
No candidate | |
| 17 | Donne Trotter (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Bill Cunningham (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Iris Martinez: 17,411 (I) Bart Goldberg: 6,318 |
No candidate | |
| 21 | Laura Ellman |
Michael Connelly (I) |
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| 23 | Tom Cullerton (I) |
Seth Lewis |
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| 24 | Suzanne Glowiak Hilton |
Chris Nybo (I) |
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| 26 | Tom Georges |
Dan McConchie (I) |
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| 27 | Ann Gillespie: 17,699 Joe Sonnefeldt: 5,931 |
Tom Rooney (I) |
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| 29 | Julie Morrison (I) |
Barrett Davie |
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| 30 | Terry Link (I) |
Soojae Lee |
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| 32 | Mary Mahady |
Craig Wilcox |
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| 33 | Nancy Zettler |
Karen McConnaughay (I) |
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| 35 | No candidate | Dave Syverson (I) |
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| 36 | Gregg Johnson |
Neil Anderson (I) |
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| 38 | Heidi Henry |
Sue Rezin (I) |
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| 39 | Don Harmon (I) |
No candidate | |
| 41 | Bridget Fitzgerald |
John Curran (I) |
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| 42 | Linda Holmes (I) |
No candidate | |
| 44 | No candidate | Bill Brady (I) |
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| 45 | David Simpson |
Brian Stewart |
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| 47 | No candidate | Jil Tracy (I) |
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| 48 | Andy Manar (I) |
Seth McMillan |
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| 50 | No candidate | Steve McClure |
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| 51 | No candidate | Chapin Rose (I) |
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| 53 | No candidate | Jason Barickman (I) |
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| 54 | No candidate | George Barber: 2,433 Rafael Him: 2,724 Jason Plummer: 12,880 Benjamin Stratemeyer: 4,410 |
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| 56 | Rachelle Aud Crowe |
No candidate | |
| 57 | Christopher Belt |
Tanya Hildenbrand: 5,052 Bob Romanik: 2,759 |
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| 59 | No candidate | Dale Fowler (I) |
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| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election vote totals[edit]
Below are election results for all contested primary elections in the Illinois State Senate in 2018. All results are unofficial.
| Illinois State Senate, District 8 Democratic Primary, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
 Ram Villivalam |
51.31% | 14,689 |
| Ira Silverstein Incumbent | 29.99% | 8,586 |
| Caroline McAteer-Fournier | 13.50% | 3,864 |
| David Zulkey | 5.21% | 1,491 |
| Total Votes | 28,630 | |
| Source: Illinois State Board of Elections, "2018 General Primary Official Vote Totals Book," accessed July 16, 2018 | ||
| Illinois State Senate, District 20 Democratic Primary, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
| Iris Martinez Incumbent |
73.36% | 19,414 |
| Bart Goldberg | 26.64% | 7,050 |
| Total Votes (144 of 151 precincts reporting) | 26,464 | |
| Source: Illinois State Board of Elections, "2018 General Primary Official Vote Totals Book," accessed July 16, 2018 | ||
| Illinois State Senate, District 27 Democratic Primary, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
| Ann Gillespie |
74.81% | 18,279 |
| Joe Sonnefeldt | 25.19% | 6,154 |
| Total Votes | 24,433 | |
| Source: Illinois State Board of Elections, "2018 General Primary Official Vote Totals Book," accessed July 16, 2018 | ||
| Illinois State Senate, District 54 Republican Primary, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
| Jason Plummer |
57.23% | 13,265 |
| Benjamin Stratemeyer | 20.23% | 4,689 |
| Rafael Him | 11.93% | 2,766 |
| George Barber | 10.61% | 2,459 |
| Total Votes | 23,179 | |
| Source: Illinois State Board of Elections, "2018 General Primary Official Vote Totals Book," accessed July 16, 2018 | ||
| Illinois State Senate, District 57 Republican Primary, 2018 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
| Tanya Hildenbrand |
64.91% | 5,235 |
| Bob Romanik | 35.09% | 2,830 |
| Total Votes | 8,065 | |
| Source: Illinois State Board of Elections, "2018 General Primary Official Vote Totals Book," accessed July 16, 2018 | ||
Margins of victory[edit]
- See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections
A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Illinois State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.
The table below presents the following figures for each party:
- Elections won
- Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
- Elections won without opposition
- Average margin of victory[3]
| Illinois State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Elections won | Elections won by less than 10% | Unopposed elections | Average margin of victory[3] |
| Democratic |
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| Republican |
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 Other |
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| Total | ||||
The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).
| Illinois State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Losing Party | Margin of Victory | |
| Republican |
Democratic |
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Democratic |
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Democratic |
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Republican |
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Republican |
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Downstate United |
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Republican |
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Democratic |
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Democratic |
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Democratic |
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Democratic |
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Seats flipped[edit]
- See also: State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018
The below map displays each seat in the Illinois State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.
| State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Illinois State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | 2018 winner | Direction of flip |
| Illinois State Senate District 21 | Michael Connelly |
Laura Ellman |
R to D |
| Illinois State Senate District 24 | Chris Nybo |
Suzanne Glowiak |
R to D |
| Illinois State Senate District 27 | Tom Rooney |
Ann Gillespie |
R to D |
Incumbents retiring[edit]
Six incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.[4] Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel K. Biss | Democratic |
Senate District 9 |
| Tim Bivins | Republican |
Senate District 45 |
| William McCann | Republican |
Senate District 50 |
| Kyle McCarter | Republican |
Senate District 54 |
| William Haine | Democratic |
Senate District 56 |
| James Clayborne | Democratic |
Senate District 57 |
Process to become a candidate[edit]
- See also: Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Illinois
See statutes: Chapter 10, Section 5, Article 7 of the Illinois Statutes
In Illinois, a candidate may run with an established political party, with a new party, as an independent candidate, or as a write-in candidate. Candidate qualification processes are detailed below.[5]
Political party candidates and independent candidates[edit]
Established political party candidates, new party candidates, and independent candidates must file nomination papers with the Illinois State Board of Elections in order to qualify for placement on the ballot. These nomination papers must be filed during the designated filing period. The filing period for established party candidates begins 113 days before the primary election and ends 106 days before the primary election. New party and independent candidates have a separate filing period. Their filing period begins 141 days before the general election and ends 134 days before the general election.[6][5]
Nomination papers include the following:[5]
- The statement of candidacy must indicate the candidate's address, the office being sought, and the candidate's political party designation (if applicable). This form also includes a statement affirming that the candidate is qualified for the office being sought. This form must be signed by the candidate and notarized.[7]
- The original statement of economic interests must be filed with the Illinois Secretary of State, which will then issue the receipt of the statement of economic interests for the candidate to file with the Illinois State Board of Elections. This form is not required from candidates seeking federal office. It is suggested that this form be filed at the same time as all other nomination papers, but it may be filed after the other papers as long as it is filed within the candidate filing period.[5]
- The loyalty oath form is optional. If a candidate chooses to sign it, he or she must affirm that he or she is not affiliated directly or indirectly with any organization that seeks to overthrow the government of the United States or the state of Illinois.[5][8]
- A petition containing the signatures of qualified electors. A candidate can begin circulating petitions 90 days before the last day of the filing period. Signature requirements for petitions vary according to the candidate's political party affiliation and the office being sought. Signature requirements are detailed in the table below.[5][9][10]
| Petition signature requirements | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Established party candidates | New party candidates | Independent candidates |
| Statewide office (e.g., governor and lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, comptroller, treasurer) | 5,000 (no more than 10,000) primary voters belonging to the candidate's party | 1% of the number of voters who voted in the most recent general election or 25,000, whichever is less | 1% of the number of voters who voted in the most recent general election or 25,000, whichever is less |
| United States Representative | 0.5% of primary voters in the district belonging to the candidate's party | 5% of the total number of district voters who voted in the last general election | 5% of the total number of district voters who voted in the last general election |
| State senator | 1,000 (no more than 3,000) district voters belonging to the candidate's party | 5% of the total number of district voters who voted in the last general election | 5% of the total number of district voters who voted in the last general election |
| State representative | 500 (no more than 1,500) district voters belonging to the candidate's party | 5% of the total number of district voters who voted in the last general election | 5% of the total number of district voters who voted in the last general election |
Any objections to nomination papers must be filed no later than five business days after the filing deadline.[11]
Write-in candidates[edit]
Write-in votes will not be counted unless the candidate files a declaration of intent no later than 61 days before the election in which he or she is running. This form must indicate the office being sought by the candidate.[5][12]
Qualifications[edit]
- See also: State legislature candidate requirements by state
Article IV of the Illinois Constitution states: To be eligible to serve as a member of the General Assembly, a person must be a United States citizen, at least 21 years old, and for the two years preceding his election or appointment a resident of the district which he is to represent.
Salaries and per diem[edit]
- See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries
| State legislators | |
|---|---|
| Salary | Per diem |
| $69,464/year | $151/day |
When sworn in[edit]
- See also: When state legislators assume office after a general election
Illinois legislators assume office the second Wednesday in January.
Illinois political history[edit]
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates and State government trifectas
Party control[edit]
2018[edit]
In the 2018 elections, Democrats increased their majority in the Illinois State Senate from 37-22 to 40-19.
| Illinois State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 6, 2018 | After November 7, 2018 | |
| Democratic Party | 37 | 40 | |
| Republican Party | 22 | 19 | |
| Total | 59 | 59 | |
2016[edit]
In the 2016 elections, the Democratic majority in the Illinois Senate decreased from 39-20 to 37-22.
| Illinois State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 39 | 37 | |
| Republican Party | 20 | 22 | |
| Total | 59 | 59 | |
Trifectas[edit]
A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Illinois came under divided government following the 2014 elections when Republicans won control of the governor's office and Democrats retained control of the state legislature. Prior to the 2014 elections, Democrats had held a trifecta since the 2002 elections. From 1992 to 2017, there were 12 years of Democratic trifectas and two years of Republican trifectas.
Illinois Party Control: 1992-2022
Sixteen years of Democratic trifectas • Two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D |
| Senate | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
| House | D | D | D | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D | D |
Primary election competitiveness[edit]
A total of 340 candidates—199 Democrats and 141 Republicans—filed for election. In 2016, 266 candidates—150 Democrats and 116 Republicans—filed for state legislative races in Illinois. There were 235 candidates in 2014. The 340 candidates who filed for election in 2018 represent about a 28 percent increase over 2016, with Democratic and Republican candidates splitting that increase fairly evenly.
The number of primaries held also increased with the number of candidates who filed for election. In 2018, Democrats held 34 primaries between the two chambers, while Republicans held 27 primaries. In 2016, there were 18 Democratic primaries and 15 Republican primaries. There were 13 Democratic primaries and 16 Republican primaries in 2014. About 20 percent of incumbents faced primary opposition in 2018. From 2010 to 2016, around 11 percent of incumbents faced a primary opponent in Illinois legislative races.
Political context of the 2018 elections[edit]
Key issues[edit]
2017 budget conflict[edit]
- See also: State budget conflicts, 2017
- In 2017, disagreements between Governor Bruce Rauner (R) and the Democratic-controlled Illinois General Assembly over the state budget drew national attention when S&P Global Inc. and Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Illinois' credit rating and some government services, including transportation projects and the state lottery, were on the verge of being shut down.[13][14] Rauner and the legislature failed to come to an agreement on a budget during the regular session, which ended on May 31, leading Rauner to call a special session from June 21 to June 30, the last day of the 2017 fiscal year. A budget agreement was not reached before June 30, meaning Illinois entered the 2018 fiscal year without a budget.
- A budget was passed on July 6, 2017, when the legislature overrode Rauner's vetoes of a $36 billion spending plan and a $5 billion tax increase. In the votes in the Illinois House, 10 Republicans joined the Democrats in voting for the overrides. Up to this point, Illinois had not passed a budget since 2014, when Pat Quinn (D) served as governor. According to The Associated Press, two years was the longest any state had gone without a budget in recent memory.[15]
- Important issues surrounding the budget debate included differences in Democratic and Republican plans concerning income tax rate increases, a property tax freeze, changes to regulations related to injured worker compensation, and the state's pension liabilities. The budget deal that eventually passed increased the personal income tax rate from 3.75 to 4.95 percent, increased the corporate tax rate from 5.25 to 7 percent, and left overall spending at $36 billion for fiscal year 2018.[16]
- The budget had an impact beyond the state, costing Wisconsin millions from its state budget. This was because, as of July 2017, Illinois and Wisconsin had a reciprocity agreement to account for the greater number of Wisconsinites that cross the state border to work in Illinois, but not pay state income taxes, than Illinoisans who came to work in Wisconsin. With higher incomes taxes in Illinois, Wisconsin's reciprocity payment increased.[17]
- Coverage of the budget negotiations centered on the relationship between Rauner and Speaker of the House Michael Madigan (D).[18] As of July 6, 2017, Rauner was seeking re-election as governor in 2018 and Madigan was defending the Democrats' 67-51 majority in the state house. Rauner and Madigan disagreed on a number of issues including whether the income tax increases should have been permanent.[19]
Education funding[edit]
- $8.2 billion in state aid for public schools was included in the budget agreement. However, language was also included that said $6.76 billion of the aid had to be dispersed through a funding formula that calculated state aid for school districts based on the cost of strategies that supporters say are proven to improve student performance. The funding for districts could be increased by elements such as income, property wealth, and English-learning needs.[20][21][22] On August 29, the Illinois General Assembly passed a bill that included the necessary funding formula. Read more the timeline of events below.
- On May 31, the Legislature passed SB 1, which contained the necessary funding formula. Gov. Rauner indicated that he would veto the bill, causing Senate President John Cullerton (D) to hold it in the chamber.[23] According to Rauner's office, the governor would not support the bill because he believed it would benefit Chicago at the expense of other areas of the state.[24]
- On July 24, Rauner called the General Assembly into a special session starting July 26 to address education funding. He had set a deadline of 12:00pm CT on July 24 for Cullerton to send him SB 1 so that he could use his amendatory veto power to make unspecified changes to the provisions he disagreed with. When the deadline passed without Cullerton sending him the bill, he called the special session.[25] On July 31, the last day of the special session, SB 1 was transmitted to Rauner.[26]
- Rauner issued an amendatory veto on August 1, rewriting SB 1 to remove a $250 million block grant to Chicago Public Schools and changing how the funding formula determines state aid.[27] According to the Illinois State Board of Education, Rauner's changes would result in a $463 million decrease in funding for Chicago Public Schools in the 2017-2018 school year.[28] The Illinois Senate met on August 13 and overrode the veto by a 38-19 vote, with all Democrats and Republican Sam McCann voting to override.[29] The Illinois House was scheduled to vote on the override on August 23, but Speaker Madigan cancelled the vote on August 22. He said that progress had been made in negotiations with Rauner and Republicans.[30][31][32]
- On August 24, the four leaders in the General Assembly— Madigan, Cullerton, Senate Minority Leader Bill Brady (R), and House Minority Leader Jim Durkin (R)— announced that they had reached a compromise agreement on SB 1. According to Politico, the agreement kept the funding formula from SB 1 and included $75 million in subsidies for private school education.[33] On August 28, 2017, the Illinois House rejected the agreement in a 46-61 vote.[34] The chamber next voted on an override of SB 1. After the override vote received just 63 of the 71 votes it needed to pass, the chamber took up the compromise bill again and passed it 73-34.[35] On August 29, the Illinois Senate passed the compromise bill by a 38-13 vote.[36] Gov. Rauner signed the bill into law on August 31.[37]
- According to The Chicago Sun-Times, some schools in low-income areas cannot remain open without the state money that is allocated by the budget.[20] In addition to the state aid in the budget, education funding in Illinois also comes from property taxes levied by local governments. Areas that pay more in property taxes can spend more on schools and are less dependent on state aid.[38]
Rauner signs HB 40[edit]
On September 28, 2017, sitting Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) signed HB 40, a bill passed by the state Legislature that spring. The bill removed a provision in Illinois law that would have made abortion illegal in the state in the event that the U.S. Supreme Court overturned its ruling in Roe v. Wade. The bill also required that Medicaid and state employee health insurance plans cover abortions.[39] Rauner's decision to sign the bill was criticized by opponents of the bill within the Illinois Republican Party, who argued that the governor had indicated in the spring that he would issue a veto if given the opportunity. A Chicago Tribune story published shortly after Rauner's signature reported that State House Minority Leader Peter Breen (R) had called for members of the Illinois Republican Party to unite behind a candidate to challenge Rauner.[40] At the time of Rauner's signature on HB 40, he had one declared opponent in the Republican primary, William Kelly.
This chart tracks Illinois Republican state legislators that Ballotpedia identified as opposing Gov. Rauner's signing of HB 40. Their positions were determined by their public statements. As of October 10, 2017, four of 22 Senate Republicans—18.2 percent—had publicly opposed Rauner on HB 40.
| Illinois Senate Republican HB 40 opponents | |
|---|---|
| District | Member |
| District 26 | Dan McConchie[41] |
| District 38 | Sue Rezin[41] |
| District 44 | Bill Brady[42] |
| District 54 | Kyle McCarter[43] |
Wave election analysis[edit]
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| State legislative wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | State legislative seats change | Elections analyzed[44] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -1,022 | 7,365 | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -907 | 6,907 | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[45] | -782 | 7,561 | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -769 | 7,179 | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -702 | 7,627 | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -702 | 7,306 | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[46] | -695 | 7,481 | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -654 | 6,835 | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -640 | 7,361 | |
| 1954 | Eisenhower | R | First midterm | -494 | 7,513 | |
Competitiveness[edit]
Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.
Results from 2016[edit]
Below is Ballotpedia's 2016 competitiveness analysis. Click here to read the full study »
Historical context[edit]
- See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Pivot Counties[edit]
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Eleven of 102 Illinois counties—10.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. These are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.
| Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| County | Trump margin of victory in 2016 | Obama margin of victory in 2012 | Obama margin of victory in 2008 | ||||
| Alexander County, Illinois | 8.30% | 13.65% | 12.62% | ||||
| Carroll County, Illinois | 26.69% | 1.49% | 4.81% | ||||
| Fulton County, Illinois | 14.93% | 11.04% | 21.33% | ||||
| Henderson County, Illinois | 28.43% | 12.25% | 17.67% | ||||
| Henry County, Illinois | 20.99% | 3.08% | 7.74% | ||||
| Jo Daviess County, Illinois | 14.64% | 1.16% | 10.49% | ||||
| Knox County, Illinois | 2.91% | 17.37% | 19.89% | ||||
| Mercer County, Illinois | 20.36% | 7.39% | 11.91% | ||||
| Putnam County, Illinois | 19.92% | 1.82% | 15.64% | ||||
| Warren County, Illinois | 16.50% | 5.47% | 8.08% | ||||
| Whiteside County, Illinois | 6.18% | 17.02% | 17.56% | ||||
In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Illinois with 55.8 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 38.8 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Illinois voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 50 percent of the time. Illinois voted Democratic in all five elections from 2000 to 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district[edit]
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Illinois. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[47][48]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 38 out of 59 state Senate districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 37.5 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 42 out of 59 state Senate districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 36.8 points. Clinton won seven districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 21 out of 59 state Senate districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 14 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 17 out of 59 state Senate districts in Illinois with an average margin of victory of 24.8 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections. |
| 2016 presidential results by state Senate District | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 82.98% | 15.32% | D+67.7 | 81.12% | 14.52% | D+66.6 | D |
| 2 | 83.27% | 14.47% | D+68.8 | 83.59% | 11.87% | D+71.7 | D |
| 3 | 86.67% | 12.37% | D+74.3 | 86.36% | 10.19% | D+76.2 | D |
| 4 | 82.99% | 16.10% | D+66.9 | 82.77% | 13.77% | D+69 | D |
| 5 | 88.27% | 10.52% | D+77.8 | 88.58% | 7.72% | D+80.9 | D |
| 6 | 71.85% | 25.77% | D+46.1 | 80.95% | 13.24% | D+67.7 | D |
| 7 | 84.91% | 12.56% | D+72.4 | 85.94% | 9.36% | D+76.6 | D |
| 8 | 64.03% | 34.54% | D+29.5 | 66.52% | 29.34% | D+37.2 | D |
| 9 | 64.22% | 34.39% | D+29.8 | 73.17% | 21.62% | D+51.6 | D |
| 10 | 57.75% | 40.45% | D+17.3 | 55.74% | 39.49% | D+16.3 | D |
| 11 | 72.92% | 25.65% | D+47.3 | 73.05% | 22.88% | D+50.2 | D |
| 12 | 72.11% | 26.28% | D+45.8 | 73.18% | 22.19% | D+51 | D |
| 13 | 89.07% | 10.03% | D+79 | 88.82% | 8.06% | D+80.8 | D |
| 14 | 80.73% | 18.60% | D+62.1 | 77.38% | 19.76% | D+57.6 | D |
| 15 | 83.30% | 16.00% | D+67.3 | 80.92% | 16.25% | D+64.7 | D |
| 16 | 84.62% | 14.73% | D+69.9 | 79.80% | 17.49% | D+62.3 | D |
| 17 | 83.80% | 15.60% | D+68.2 | 80.67% | 16.84% | D+63.8 | D |
| 18 | 56.76% | 41.90% | D+14.9 | 54.95% | 40.47% | D+14.5 | D |
| 19 | 59.30% | 39.61% | D+19.7 | 57.34% | 38.50% | D+18.8 | D |
| 20 | 82.11% | 15.13% | D+67 | 82.78% | 12.10% | D+70.7 | D |
| 21 | 46.23% | 52.15% | R+5.9 | 53.28% | 39.86% | D+13.4 | R |
| 22 | 63.71% | 34.52% | D+29.2 | 63.92% | 30.63% | D+33.3 | D |
| 23 | 52.74% | 45.60% | D+7.1 | 53.17% | 41.45% | D+11.7 | D |
| 24 | 46.16% | 52.24% | R+6.1 | 53.40% | 39.68% | D+13.7 | R |
| 25 | 45.12% | 53.24% | R+8.1 | 48.13% | 45.16% | D+3 | R |
| 26 | 43.00% | 55.50% | R+12.5 | 47.81% | 45.74% | D+2.1 | R |
| 27 | 48.68% | 49.79% | R+1.1 | 54.39% | 39.41% | D+15 | R |
| 28 | 55.49% | 42.87% | D+12.6 | 57.11% | 37.42% | D+19.7 | D |
| 29 | 57.14% | 41.71% | D+15.4 | 65.07% | 29.97% | D+35.1 | D |
| 30 | 66.04% | 32.75% | D+33.3 | 69.03% | 26.11% | D+42.9 | D |
| 31 | 52.62% | 45.76% | D+6.9 | 53.35% | 40.26% | D+13.1 | D |
| 32 | 44.60% | 53.54% | R+8.9 | 40.94% | 52.59% | R+11.7 | R |
| 33 | 44.76% | 53.77% | R+9 | 46.84% | 47.18% | R+0.3 | R |
| 34 | 56.83% | 41.40% | D+15.4 | 52.03% | 42.31% | D+9.7 | D |
| 35 | 46.14% | 51.97% | R+5.8 | 42.39% | 51.11% | R+8.7 | R |
| 36 | 59.51% | 38.94% | D+20.6 | 48.62% | 45.33% | D+3.3 | R |
| 37 | 44.07% | 54.22% | R+10.2 | 35.89% | 57.77% | R+21.9 | R |
| 38 | 47.72% | 50.29% | R+2.6 | 39.42% | 54.55% | R+15.1 | R |
| 39 | 75.06% | 23.59% | D+51.5 | 74.48% | 21.50% | D+53 | D |
| 40 | 57.73% | 40.91% | D+16.8 | 53.61% | 41.80% | D+11.8 | D |
| 41 | 45.51% | 52.99% | R+7.5 | 49.30% | 44.65% | D+4.7 | R |
| 42 | 63.52% | 34.93% | D+28.6 | 65.57% | 28.70% | D+36.9 | D |
| 43 | 64.43% | 33.98% | D+30.5 | 61.02% | 33.74% | D+27.3 | D |
| 44 | 38.54% | 59.33% | R+20.8 | 34.62% | 58.82% | R+24.2 | R |
| 45 | 44.42% | 53.58% | R+9.2 | 36.02% | 57.63% | R+21.6 | R |
| 46 | 56.66% | 41.18% | D+15.5 | 47.98% | 45.80% | D+2.2 | D |
| 47 | 42.95% | 55.03% | R+12.1 | 31.29% | 63.50% | R+32.2 | R |
| 48 | 50.23% | 47.57% | D+2.7 | 38.73% | 55.97% | R+17.2 | D |
| 49 | 52.93% | 45.63% | D+7.3 | 52.42% | 42.14% | D+10.3 | D |
| 50 | 39.52% | 58.35% | R+18.8 | 34.27% | 60.20% | R+25.9 | R |
| 51 | 33.63% | 64.47% | R+30.8 | 27.83% | 66.44% | R+38.6 | R |
| 52 | 55.77% | 41.50% | D+14.3 | 56.92% | 36.65% | D+20.3 | D |
| 53 | 35.40% | 62.72% | R+27.3 | 34.70% | 58.59% | R+23.9 | R |
| 54 | 34.15% | 63.79% | R+29.6 | 24.92% | 69.88% | R+45 | R |
| 55 | 32.34% | 65.63% | R+33.3 | 22.20% | 73.39% | R+51.2 | R |
| 56 | 50.09% | 47.55% | D+2.5 | 41.85% | 52.46% | R+10.6 | D |
| 57 | 61.29% | 37.07% | D+24.2 | 55.68% | 39.68% | D+16 | D |
| 58 | 42.13% | 55.37% | R+13.2 | 31.26% | 63.80% | R+32.5 | R |
| 59 | 38.88% | 59.03% | R+20.2 | 27.39% | 68.53% | R+41.1 | R |
| Total | 57.61% | 40.74% | D+16.9 | 55.96% | 38.85% | D+17.1 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
See also[edit]
- Illinois State Senate
- Illinois State Legislature
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Illinois state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
- Illinois state legislative Republican primaries, 2018
External links[edit]
 |
Suggest a link |
- Illinois State Legislature
Footnotes[edit]
- ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Federal and State Officers," March 16, 2017
- ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate Filing Search - By Office: GENERAL PRIMARY - 3/20/2018," accessed December 5, 2017
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ Ballotpedia defines an incumbent as retiring if the incumbent did not file for office or filed for office but withdrew, was disqualified, or otherwise left a race in a manner other than losing the primary, primary runoff, or convention. If an incumbent runs as a write-in candidate, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring. If an incumbent runs in the same chamber for a different seat, Ballotpedia does not consider them to be retiring.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 Illinois State Board of Elections, "State of Illinois Candidate's Guide 2014," Updated November 26, 2013
- ↑ Illinois Statutes, "Chapter 10, Section 5, Article 10, Section 12," accessed March 26, 2014
- ↑ Illinois Statutes, "Chapter 10, Section 5, Article 7, Section 10.1," accessed March 26, 2014
- ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "State of Illinois Candidate's Guide 2013," accessed March 26, 2014
- ↑ Illinois Statutes, "Chapter 10, Section 5, Article 7, Section 10," accessed March 26, 2014
- ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Candidate's Guide 2018," updated October 11, 2017
- ↑ Illinois State Board of Elections, "Election and Campaign Finance Calendar 2014," Updated July 31, 2013
- ↑ Illinois Statutes, "Chapter 10, Section 5, Article 7, Section 59," accessed March 26, 2014
- ↑ Reuters, "S&P cuts Illinois' credit rating to one notch above junk," June 1, 2017
- ↑ NBC Chicago, "What Happens If Illinois Lawmakers Don't Pass a Budget?" June 28, 2017
- ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Illinois Senate Democrats Vote for $5.4 Billion Tax Increase," May 23, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Illinois Senate votes to override Rauner veto of income tax hike, budget," July 4, 2017
- ↑ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Wisconsin's state budget takes $51 million hit — thanks to Illinois," July 11, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Illinois lawmakers face budget rage," July 5, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Madigan sends Rauner message on tax hike vote as talks break down at Capitol," July 1, 2017
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 The Chicago Sun-Times, "Illinois has state budget, but no school funding plan," July 16, 2017
- ↑ NPR Illinois, "Education Desk: Evidence-Based School Funding Model Explained," September 26, 2016
- ↑ WTTW, "Education Funding in Illinois: How the Evidence-Based Model Works," September 21, 2016
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Rauner-CPS feud could hold up school money for rest of state," July 13, 2017
- ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "Rauner Aide: Democrats' School Funding Plan a CPS 'Bailout'," May 17, 2017
- ↑ U.S. News and World Report, "The Latest: Gov. Rauner Calls School-Funding Special Session," July 24, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Next move is Rauner's after Senate sends him school funding bill," July 31, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Rauner vetoes education funding plan, Emanuel accuses him of 'fuzzy math'," August 1, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Madigan: Attempt to override Rauner's education veto set for next week," August 16, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Senate overrides Rauner school funding veto, but House hurdle remains," August 13, 2017
- ↑ The Chicago Sun-Times, "Speaker Madigan calls legislators to work — on Governor’s Day," August 9, 2017
- ↑ wglt.org, "Illinois House To Vote Next Week On School Funding Override," August 16, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Madigan calls off Wednesday session in Springfield; no override vote of Rauner for now," August 23, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "SCHOOL funding WINNERS and LOSERS — RAUNER staffing TURMOIL — Saving ABE in CHICAGO," August 25, 2017
- ↑ capitolfax.com, "Education funding reform bill gets just 46 votes," August 28, 2017
- ↑ capitolfax.com, "On second try, education funding reform passes with 73 votes," August 28, 2017
- ↑ capitolfax.com, "React rolls in to passage of education funding reform," August 29, 2017
- ↑ NBC Chicago, "Rauner Signs Historic Education Funding Reform Bill," August 31, 2017
- ↑ NPR, "Why America's Schools Have A Money Problem," April 18, 2016
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Rauner signs controversial abortion bill, angering conservatives," September 29, 2017
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "Rauner's left turns on abortion, immigration put his political base in doubt," September 30, 2017
- ↑ 41.0 41.1 Illinois Federation for Right to Life, "Reactions to Gov. Rauner Signing HB40," September 29, 2017
- ↑ Capitol Fax, "A sampling of more HB40 react," September 28, 2017
- ↑ The State-Journal Register, "Reaction to the signing of House Bill 40 into law," September 28, 2017
- ↑ The number of state legislative seats available for analysis varied, with as many as 7,795 and as few as 6,835.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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Categories: [State Senate elections, 2018] [Illinois elections, 2018]
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