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U.S. Senate, Missouri
Democratic primary Republican primary General election
Election details
Filing deadline: March 27, 2018
Primary: August 7, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Claire McCaskill (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Missouri
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss-up Inside Elections: Tilt Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss-up
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
U.S. Senate, Missouri U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th Missouri elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 Arizona U.S. Senate raceCalifornia U.S. Senate raceConnecticut U.S. Senate raceDelaware U.S. Senate raceFlorida U.S. Senate raceHawaii U.S. Senate raceIndiana U.S. Senate raceMaine U.S. Senate raceMaryland U.S. Senate raceMassachusetts U.S. Senate raceMichigan U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate raceMinnesota U.S. Senate race (special)Mississippi U.S. Senate raceMississippi U.S. Senate race (special)Missouri U.S. Senate raceMontana U.S. Senate raceNebraska U.S. Senate raceNevada U.S. Senate raceNew Jersey U.S. Senate raceNew Mexico U.S. Senate raceNew York U.S. Senate raceNorth Dakota U.S. Senate raceOhio U.S. Senate racePennsylvania U.S. Senate raceRhode Island U.S. Senate raceTennessee U.S. Senate raceTexas U.S. Senate raceUtah U.S. Senate raceVermont U.S. Senate raceVirginia U.S. Senate raceWashington U.S. Senate raceWest Virginia U.S. Senate raceWisconsin U.S. Senate raceWyoming U.S. Senate raceSubmit

Eleven Republicans ran for the party's nomination to challenge incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill, the last Democrat in Missouri to win a statewide election since 2012, in the general election.^[1] CNN named it the Democratic seat most likely to flip in March 2018.^[2]

The Republican field included Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, retired Air Force Lt. Col. Tony Monetti, 2016 Libertarian presidential candidate Austin Petersen, and Navy veteran Courtland Sykes.

Hawley received early support from across the Republican Party, including President Donald Trump (R), Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), and the Senate Conservatives Fund. Club for Growth also raised $10 million to support Hawley's run, before he had declared his candidacy.^[3]

This page focuses on the Republican primary. For an overview of the general election, click here.

Candidates and election results[edit]

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

The following candidates ran in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri on August 7, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. Senate Missouri

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Josh Hawley	58.6	389,006
		Tony Monetti	9.8	64,718
		Austin Petersen	8.3	54,810
		Kristi Nichols	7.5	49,554
		Christina Smith	5.3	34,948
	Submit photo	Ken Patterson	2.9	19,537
		Peter Pfeifer	2.5	16,557
		Courtland Sykes	2.1	13,862
		Fred Ryman	1.3	8,763
	Submit photo	Brian Hagg	1.0	6,913
	Submit photo	Bradley Krembs	0.7	4,885

---

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 663,553
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

• Camille Lombardi-Olive (R)
• Robert Marshner (R)

Campaign contributions[edit]

The table below contains data from FEC Quarterly October 2017 reports. It includes only candidates who reported at least $10,000 in campaign contributions as of September 30, 2017.^[4]

Republicans

Satellite spending[edit]

• The nonprofit organization One Nation spent over $2 million in ads supporting Josh Hawley.^[5]

Acceptance of Bitcoin campaign contributions[edit]

During the primary election, the Petersen campaign accepted campaign contributions denominated in Bitcoin, a digital currency not associated with any government. In an interview with The Western Journal dated December 18, 2017, Petersen explained his support for the currency: "Basically it represents freedom. It’s the real people’s currency because it does not require a central bank." At the time of the article's publication, the largest Bitcoin campaign contribution received by Petersen was equivalent to $500, although Petersen noted that he had been required to turn down a separate Bitcoin contribution because it exceeded the individual contribution limit.^[6]

Polls[edit]

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls

Noteworthy events[edit]

This section highlights issues raised during the campaign and major policy differences between candidates.

Gender issues[edit]

• During an event hosted by the Missouri Renewal Project in December 2017, Hawley attributed an increase in sex trafficking to the sexual revolution of the 1960s. He said, "We have a human trafficking crisis in our state and in this city and in our country because people are willing to purchase women, young women, and treat them like commodities. There is a market for it. Why is there? Because our culture has completely lost its way. The sexual revolution has led to exploitation of women on a scale that we would never have imagined, never have imagined."^[7] Incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) responded in a tweet, "I didn’t go to one of those fancy private schools, but the history I learned in public schools & Mizzou taught me that the evidence of trafficking of women for sex goes back to before 2000 BC. It didn’t begin with women’s rights and the birth control pill."^[7]

• In a Facebook post on January 30, 2018, Sykes detailed his views on women's rights. "I want daughters to have their own intelligence, their own dignity, their own workspace, and their own degrees. I want them to build home-based enterprises and live in homes shared with good husbands, and I don't want to them [to] grow up into career-obsessed banshees who forego home life and children and the happiness of family to become nail-biting manophobic [sic] hell-bent feminist she-devils who shriek from the tops of a thousand tall buildings they are [sic] think they could have leaped over in a single bound—had men not 'suppressed them.' That's just nuts. It always was. I support women's rights but not the kind that has oppressed natural womanhood for five long decades," he wrote.^[8]

Campaign tactics and strategies[edit]

Noteworthy events[edit]

President Trump campaign appearance[edit]

On March 14, 2018, Pres. Donald Trump (R) visited Missouri for a campaign appearance on behalf of Josh Hawley (R). The president said that "Josh is doing a fantastic job, I can tell you that. He’s working hard."^[9] The president also appeared at a fundraiser where an estimated $2 million was raised for the Hawley campaign and the Republican Party of Missouri.^[10]

Endorsements[edit]

Race ratings[edit]

Election history[edit]

2016[edit]

See also: United States Senate election in Missouri, 2016

Ballotpedia rated the race for Missouri's U.S. Senate seat as a battleground, in part, because of the Democratic Party's effort to turn a state that leaned Republican into Democratic territory. However, incumbent Roy Blunt (R) won re-election, defeating Jason Kander (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Blunt also defeated Jonathan Dine (L), Fred Ryman (Constitution Party), Johnathan McFarland (G), and write-in candidates Gina Bufe and Patrick Lee.

Kander's strategy was to run as a political outsider and try to paint Blunt as a Washington insider. According to The Kansas City Star, “Kander labels Blunt the 'consummate Washington insider' and insists Blunt has lost touch with voters who sent him to the Capitol. Kander further contends that Blunt is far too cozy with lobbyists and is in fact married to one while three of his children are lobbyists.” In response, Blunt tried to tie Kander to "Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama, both of whom are unpopular in the state.”^[19]

Satellite groups also sought to influence the race by spending $44,961,510. In the last weeks of the race, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee planned to spend $3.5 million to support Kander's bid to unseat Blunt. Republicans also spent money on the race to protect Blunt's seat and their majority in the Senate. The Senate Leadership Fund invested $2.5 million in Missouri in September.^[20][21][22]

In his concession speech, Kander encouraged his supporters, especially his young supporters, to stay involved in politics despite the results. He said, "They need to know that I'm not OK with them stepping away, that this country is a place you've got to stay invested in. This generation is not going anywhere."^[23]

In his victory speech, Blunt said, "What a great moment for our state." Blunt, who distanced himself from Trump during the campaign, was optimistic about Republican control of the presidency and Congress. He said, "A Republican president and a Republican Senate and a Republican House can do things to change this country and focus again on opportunity."^[23]

U.S. Senate, Missouri General Election, 2016

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Republican	Roy Blunt Incumbent	49.2%	1,378,458
	Democratic	Jason Kander	46.4%	1,300,200
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	2.4%	67,738
	Green	Johnathan McFarland	1.1%	30,743
	Constitution	Fred Ryman	0.9%	25,407
	N/A	Write-in	0%	95
Total Votes				2,802,641
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

U.S. Senate, Missouri Democratic Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Jason Kander	69.9%	223,492
Cori Bush	13.3%	42,453
Chief Wana Dubie	9.5%	30,432
Robert Mack	7.3%	23,509
Total Votes		319,886
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

U.S. Senate, Missouri Republican Primary, 2016

Candidate	Vote %	Votes
Roy Blunt	72.6%	481,444
Kristi Nichols	20.2%	134,025
Ryan Luethy	4.4%	29,328
Bernie Mowinski	2.8%	18,789
Total Votes		663,586
Source: Missouri Secretary of State

2012[edit]

See also: United States Senate elections in Missouri, 2012

On November 6, 2012, Incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) won re-election to the United States Senate. She defeated Todd Akin (R), Jonathan Dine (L) and several write-in candidates in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Missouri, General Election, 2012

Party		Candidate	Vote %	Votes
	Democratic	Claire McCaskill Incumbent	54.8%	1,494,125
	Republican	Todd Akin	39.1%	1,066,159
	Libertarian	Jonathan Dine	6.1%	165,468
	Write-in	Ted Kimzey	0%	15
	Write-in	Bernard J. "Spark" Duraski, Jr.	0%	9
	Write-in	William Dean	0%	6
	Write-in	Bernie Mowinksi	0%	5
	Write-in	Charlie L. Bailey	0%	4
	Write-in	Arnie C. "AC" Dienoff	0%	2
Total Votes				2,725,793
Source: Missouri Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Pivot Counties[edit]

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Missouri. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Missouri with 56.8 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 38.1 percent. In presidential elections between 1820 and 2016, Missouri voted Democratic 60 percent of the time and Republican 36 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Missouri voted Republican all five times.^[24]

Presidential results by legislative district[edit]

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Missouri. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[25][26]

State overview[edit]

Partisan control[edit]

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Missouri heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation[edit]

• Following the 2016 elections, Democrats and Republicans each held one U.S. Senate seat in Missouri.
• Republicans held six of 8 U.S. House seats in Missouri.

State executives[edit]

• As of May 2018, Republicans held three of 12 state executive positions, Democrats held one, and the remaining positions were officially nonpartisan.
• The governor of Missouri was Republican Mike Parson. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2020.

State legislature[edit]

• Republicans controlled both chambers of the Missouri General Assembly. They had a 109-45 majority in the state House and a 23-10 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status[edit]

• Missouri was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections[edit]

See also: Missouri elections, 2018

Missouri held elections for the following positions in 2018:

• One U.S. Senate seat
• Eight U.S. House seats
• One lower state executive position
• 17 of 34 state Senate seats
• 163 state House seats
• Municipal elections in Missouri

Demographics[edit]

As of July 2016, Missouri's three largest cities were Kansas City (pop. est. 488,943), St. Louis (pop. est. 308,626), and Springfield (pop. est. 167,376).^[27][28]

State election history[edit]

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Missouri Secretary of State.

Historical elections[edit]

Presidential elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Missouri every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Missouri 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Donald Trump	56.4%	Hillary Clinton	37.9%	18.5%
2012	Mitt Romney	53.8%	Barack Obama	44.4%	9.4%
2008	John McCain	49.4%	Barack Obama	49.3%	0.1%
2004	George W. Bush	53.3%	John Kerry	46.1%	7.2%
2000	George W. Bush	50.4%	Al Gore	47.1%	3.3%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Missouri from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Missouri 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Roy Blunt	49.2%	Jason Kander	46.4%	2.8%
2012	Claire McCaskill	54.8%	Todd Akin	39.1%	15.7%
2010	Roy Blunt	54.2%	Robin Carnahan	40.6%	13.6%
2006	Claire McCaskill	49.6%	Jim Talent	47.3%	2.3%
2004	Kit Bond	56.1%	Nancy Farmer	42.8%	13.3%
2000	Mel Carnahan	50.5%	John Ashcroft	48.4%	2.1%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Missouri.

Election results (Governor), Missouri 2000-2016
Year	First-place candidate	First-place candidate votes (%)	Second-place candidate	Second-place candidate votes (%)	Margin of victory (%)
2016	Eric Greitens	51.1%	Chris Koster	45.5%	5.6%
2012	Jay Nixon	54.8%	Dave Spence	42.5%	12.3%
2008	Jay Nixon	58.4%	Kenny Hulshof	39.5%	18.9%
2004	Matt Blunt	50.8%	Claire McCaskill	47.9%	2.9%
2000	Bob Holden	49.1%	Jim Talent	48.2%	0.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016[edit]

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Missouri in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Missouri 2000-2016
Year	Republicans	Republicans (%)	Democrats	Democrats (%)	Balance of power
2016	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2014	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2012	6	75%	2	25%	R+4
2010	6	33.3%	3	66.7%	R+3
2008	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2006	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2004	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2002	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1
2000	5	55.5%	4	44.4%	R+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017[edit]

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

See also[edit]

• United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018
• United States Senate election in Missouri (August 7, 2018 Democratic primary)
• United States Senate elections, 2018
• United States House of Representatives elections in Missouri, 2018

Footnotes[edit]

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